Samhällsekonomi

Swedbanks chefekonom

To the Point

To the Point är en månatlig publikation från Swedbanks ekonomiska sekretariat, huvudsakligen riktad till bankens engelskspråkiga kunder. Den innehåller diskussioner om den globala ekonomin utifrån analyser, prognoser och ekonomisk forskning. Finanskrisen - med omfattande konsekvenser för näringsliv och offentliga institutioner - har påmint oss om vikten av att ha ett holistiskt perspektiv, genom att kombinera makro och mikro, samt ekonomin med psykologin med den politiska verkligheten.

The US: A risky negligence of structural factors

2012 04 30
Unemployment has fallen in the US, but the number of structurally unemployed will remain high, and many have left the labour force. Structural factors in the housing market, also, can explain why the recovery has been so weak so far, and why the housing market will remain rather depressed.

To the Point - No. 4/2012

It’s the politics, stupid!

2012 03 30
Man-made political and economic institutions underlie a nation’s economic success. After the financial crisis and recession, many of these institutions need to be rebuilt in the US and Europe, and it is important this be done in a truly democratic environment.
To the Point - No. 3/2012

Green shoots of economic recovery – but beware of frost!

Stronger employment, housing starts and business spending in the US, continued growth in the emerging markets, and ECB:s measures lowering pessimism in the euro zone, create green shoots in the global recovery.

To the Point - No. 2/2012

The full monty: how to build a strong currency union while closing democracy gaps

2012 01 30
The institutions for a strong currency union in Europe are still lacking. To be effective, the EMU needs fiscal cooperation (or union), supranational bank regulation, and a central bank as lender of last resort to banks and sovereigns.
To the Point - No.1/ 2012

Multilateralism will be tested during 2012

2011 12 29
In the coming years, emerging markets will gain position as advanced economies busy themselves with deleveraging and restructuring. In a global “supply chain economy”, emerging markets will grow slower as well. Also, the emerging markets must deal with internal challenges of poverty, corruption, and democratisation.

To the Point - No. 9/2011

Technocrat Time (Is Here Again)

2011 11 30
Italy and Greece have sworn in technocratic governments, and the US used a “super committee” to round Congress. Technocrats were used after the Great Depression in the 1930’s. Now we see them coming back after our Great Recession.

To the Point - No.8/2011

After the EU deal: Fear is still spelled “Italy”

2011 10 31
Rating institutions, financial markets and policy-makers in the euro zone all show a shrinking confidence in the Italian government and its plans to balance budgets and reduce debt while enhancing growth.

Italy’s high public debt is destabilising not only Italy, but also the euro zone and potentially the global economy. Despite the EU deal to ring fence Greece, Italy is still the main fear as market interest rates rise. Italy needs bold structural reforms in order to create confidence.

To the Point - No. 7/2011

The real threat is stagnation

2011 09 08
There is fear of a new recession in the western countries, spreading to emerging markets and thus creating a new global economic crisis. Although the threat is real, and would be serious if it materialised, as the tool box is more or less empty, an even more likely danger to western societies is the possibility of economic stagnation. With no or low growth for many years to come there would be great negative effects on welfare systems. More than ever, it is thus important to understand the challenges a stagnating Japan has faced for two decades and make sure the same mistakes are not repeated.
To the Point - No.6/2011

The welfare state needs a make-over

2011 05 30
In many countries it will become harder to afford welfare. Particularly debt-burdened countries will have difficulties, but also in the Nordics – and not least in Sweden – the gap between demand and supply of welfare services will increase, and so will the gap between costs and tax income. Taxes in relation to GDP cannot continue to rise, but tax income can increase as more people participate on the labor market during a longer period of time. Welfare services can also be produced more effectively. Even so, the financing gap will remain, which means that Sweden will have to mix public and private financing of welfare. To start the reform process already now would be wise, and there is a need to make priorities on what should and should not be publicly financed. This version of the To the Point argues that it is time to give the welfare state a make-over.
To the Point - No.5/2011

Economic Growth – curse or cure?

2011 04 28
Among most politicians and economists, economic growth is a positive concept. Especially in industrial countries, with increased public debt burdens, growth is seen as the cure. At the same time, there are those who argue that economic growth threatens the ecology, and that the idea of decoupling between production and emissions is just a myth. For those, economic growth is more of a curse, and something that needs to be stopped in the developed world. This version of To the Point digs a little deeper into the concept of growth at a time when the world is facing both an economic and an ecologic crisis.
To the Point - No.4/2011

Don´t ignore the white swans!

2011 03 31
The March version of To the Point acknowledges the black swans of the Japanese disaster and the Middle East political turbulence, but at the same time it is argued that we tend to forget the white swans with perhaps even larger negative consequences for the world economy. One such white swan, is the sovereign debt crisis in the euro-zone and the US. While the euro-zone is struggling to improve the situation, US politicians are too passive. Even if we can understand the risks to the whole world from the US letting debt piling up, there may still not be sufficient action taken.
To the Point - No.3/2011

We need to accept the "slow fix"

2011 02 28
During last week, Spain remembered the failed military coup attempt that threatened the democracy exactly 30 years ago. Since then many positive changes have occured in the society and the economy, and the wave of democratization in Southern Europe was followed by a similar wave in Eastern and Central Europe. Now, there is hope for democratization in the Middle East. Again, the Spanish economic developments have been threatened due to the financial crisis and the global recession, as well as imbalances especially with regard to overinvestment in construction and weaknesses on the labour market. This second 2011 version of To the Point argues that there must be an acceptance for a "slow fix" rather than a "quick fix" since the imbalances require microeconomic and structural reforms that must be implemented now, but where it will take time to fully see and appreciate the effects.
To the Point - No.2/2011

An increasingly angry world

2011 01 31
The first edition of this year’s To the Point focuses on popular reactions to increased food and energy prices, rising unemployment, weaker welfare systems, and demand for democratisation in the Arab world.
To the Point - No.1/2011

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