Vi gör regelbundet analyser inom hållbarhetsområdet. Ni hittar bland annat våra hållbarhetsindikatorer som mäter framstegen mot målen i Agenda 2030. Ta del av våra analyser.
USA:s Inflation Reduction Act – bra eller dåligt för global tillväxt?
I takt med att den globala konjunkturen vänder nedåt växer (Swedish summary)oron för hur länder ska kunna lyfta tillväxten framöver. Att investera i den gröna omställningen är inte bara ett avgörande steg för att begränsa den globala uppvärmningen utan är också ett sätt att öka den ekonomiska tillväxten. Industripolitik och USA:s ”Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA) är ett aktuellt exempel. Industripolitik kan vara ett kraftfullt verktyg för att främja ekonomisk tillväxt, men det kan också skapa handelshinder och därmed dämpa tillväxten. Här är ett kort avsnitt med frågor och svar om IRA
Inflation Reduction Act – a blessing or a curse for global growth?
As the global economic cycle is making a downturn, there is growing concern about how countries could boost growth going forward. Investing in the green transition not only serves as a crucial step to curtail global warming but also represents a way to boost economic growth. Industrial policy such as the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is a current example. However, while industrial policy can be a powerful tool for promoting economic growth, it may also create barriers to trade and thereby harm growth. Here’s a short Q&A on the IRA and the EU response, followed by our analysis.
Q&A US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
- What is the IRA?
The IRA is a government bill and climate law, considered to be the most significant climate legislation in US history, allocating $400 billion (1.5% of nominal GDP in 2022) in federal funding over 10 years. Enacted in 2022, the primary objective of the law is to accelerate the transition to a greener economy by, curtailing carbon emissions, promoting domestic production of clean technology and countering China’s dominance in this area. It also aims to fight inflation by, e.g., reducing energy costs, hence the bill’s name. Yet, while it will boost manufacturing in the US, it poses a series of possible risks. - Follow the link down below to read more.
April 24 2023: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
How inflationary is the green transition?
Larger inflationary impulse is the transition is delayed
- Greenflation is an inflationary demand shock following from the green transition
- Price-effects of a gradual transition are limited, compared to the current high-inflation setting
- If the transition is delayed, the annual inflationary-impulse risks being three times larger
- Greenflationary pressures can be largely unequal between countries, hurting countries that have more to do in order to reach the 2030 and 2050 climate-targets
2023: Read more about this from page 19 in our January edition of Economic Outlook
Stability and Sustainability Report
How well are we prepared for the winter?
- Sweden: Economic growth continues, but resilience starts fading
- Baltics: Fading growth, quarter-century-high inflation
- Risks: Recession, inflationary pressures, gas disruptions
- Sustainability: Some improvements, but a lot more needs to be done
Swedish economy expanded faster than expected in the third quarter. The labour market has remained strong, but labour shortages have started easing. Amidst stubbornly rising headline and core inflation, the Riksbank increased its key interest rate by 75 basis points in November. Rising mortgage rates and a merciless cost-of-living shock have led to a 12.5% decline in housing prices since February 2022.
The Lithuanian economy surprised on the upside and continued growing in the third quarter, while the Latvian and Estonian economies contracted. Labour markets in the Baltic countries have remained strong, but the purchasing power has dropped. Consumption is weakening, and cost pressures and weakening demand are weighing on corporate profits. Inflation has started to retreat across the Baltics, helped by fiscal measures, easing external cost pressures, and weakening demand.
Risks to the economic outlook are tilted downwards. More severe scenarios are possible, especially if this winter is colder and longer than average, and there are difficulties in filling up European gas storages ahead of the next winter.
The energy crisis is spurring investments in renewables and energy efficiency. However, in the short term, natural gas is being replaced by dirtier alternatives, increasing emissions. The cost shock is hitting disproportionately hard the least well off.
Q3 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
China’s green transition
Climate policy – will China reach its goals?
- Reaching peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 might not be enough
- Remarkable achievements are made in areas of clean energy and electric vehicles …
- … but the transition away from coal dependency is a challenge
21 december 2022: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Swedbank Economic Outlook - oktober 2022
EU:s energiproduktion påverkas av extremväder i ett redan känsligt läge
Sedan Rysslands invasion av Ukraina och den snabba nedgången i importen av naturgas från Ryssland har Europa befunnit sig i en energikris. Under årets gång har situationen dessutom förvärrats av andra faktorer som minskat elproduktionen. I Europa har sommaren präglats av värmeböljor och torka. Samtidigt har planerade underhållsstopp ställt till det.
Swedbank Economic Outlook - augusti 2022
- Energikris driver europeiska ekonomier mot stagnation
Det pågående kriget i Ukraina åtföljs av en ekonomisk konflikt mellan Ryssland och de västallierade. I takt med att sanktionerna orsakar alltmer förödelse i den ryska ekonomin har Kreml beslutat att använda naturgasen som ekonomiskt vapen. Många europeiska länder är beroende av gas för uppvärmning under vintermånaderna och elproduktion.
- Energikrisen skapar både incitament och hinder för omställningen
EU och världen står mitt i omställningen att fasa ut fossila bränslen för att minska utsläppen av växthusgaser och bromsa den globala uppvärmningen. Den pågående energikrisen i Europa och kriget i Ukraina pressar situationen ytterligare. På kort sikt ser utsläppen ut att öka. På längre sikt kan dock energikrisen öka incitamentet för ytterligare investeringar i grön och förnybar energi.
The economics of extreme weather events
Nordic and Baltic economies relatively spared so far
- The impacts of extreme weather vary across geographies, across sectors, and, thereby, across countries. Water and waste, agriculture, transportation, and tourism are among the sectors affected the most.
- Globally, the direct costs of extreme weather events are on the rise and have amounted to around EUR 100 billion every year since 2010.
- Moreover, although indirect costs from extreme weather events, such as reduced economic activity, supply-chain disruptions, and health effects are harder to quantify, studies suggest that they could be an additional multiple of direct costs ranging from 1.5X to over 10X.
- Nevertheless, the Nordic and Baltic economies have been relatively spared so far, incurring quite small losses due to extreme weather events. However, the costs are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, affecting more parts of the globe.
- Large-scale investments will be necessary to enable the global economy and societies to mitigate the risks from extreme weather events. Upward price pressure and capital losses are also likely.
17 december 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
What happens in Glasgow?
- The projected path for global warming leads to 2.7°C by the end of the century, and not 1.5°C as is the goal.
- This year’s UN conference on climate change is important since the countries will present how they plan to limit their carbon footprint, as promised at the Paris agreement.
- Four goals will be the main focus: mitigation, adaptation, finance and collaboration. The goals seem far from reachable given the current situation.
- Dual investments are needed to curb further emissions and to adapt to climate change that is already occurring.
- The current global energy crisis has accentuated the need of clean and stable energy production and could increase incentives for investing in green energy sources.
Oct 28 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Swedbank ESG monitor: Carbon pricing speeds up structural change
Sustainable development indicators show that all the Nordic and Baltic countries have a long way to go to reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. At the sectoral level, especially utilities and transport, agriculture and forestry have high emission intensities in many Nordic and Baltic countries.
For the world to reach net-zero emissions, a higher price of carbon is needed. This would have the largest impacts in carbon intensive and export-reliant sectors in mining and manufacturing, utilities and transport. Transition risks are considerable in the Nordics and Baltics, although most of them have an emission intensity below the global average.
23 juni 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Cirkulär ekonomi – behovet av en god cirkel
- Än så länge ingen frikoppling (decoupling) mellan tillväxt och resursanvändning
- Minskad materialanvändning en nyckelfråga för klimat och naturens mångfald
- Fler politiska åtgärder behövs för att skapa en marknad för cirkulära lösningar
16 juni 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
Climate change and central banking: Protection of price stability the minimum requirement
Central banks are starting to factor in climate change. Adjustments to monetary policy operations may be necessary, and they are possible within the ECB’s and the Riksbank’s mandates. Green tilting of asset purchases can be motivated, but not as a major climate policy tool.
31 maj 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
The green taxonomy: a driver for the transition
The EU’s green taxonomy and disclosure regulation will reduce greenwashing and speed up the green transition. We expect the effects on interest rates to be modest in the short term, but the impacts on stock prices and long-term funding costs could be considerable. Overall, the Nordics are in a good position to gain, with some sectors losing out. The effects in the Baltics will be smaller in the near-term.
15 mars 2021: Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)
Elnätet: En nyckelfråga för tillväxt och grön omställning
Den gröna omställningen ställer höga krav på Sveriges redan ansträngda elnät. Kraftigt ökade investeringar behövs och är planerade, men risken är stor att de dröjer. Det finns lösningar för kapacitetsbristen men många pusselbitar behöver komma på plats.
11 februari 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här
Ännu ett viktigt år för EU:s gröna politik
Trots krisen godkände EU en våg av gröna reformer år 2020. 2021 kommer att vara avgörande för deras genomförande. Om allt går enligt planerna, kommer reformerna stödja gröna investeringar, driva upp priset på koldioxid och fortsätta stödja marknaden för gröna tillgångar.
1 februari 2021: Läs den fullständiga analysen/rapporten här (pdf)
A key election for the planet
Climate policy constitutes a major difference in Trump’s and Biden’s agendas. Biden’s plan includes large green investments and a Democrat victory would support green tech industries globally.
24 september 2020: