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Arkiv Makrofokus

Storbritannien: Nyval lär ge Tory-seger men dödläge kan bestå

Avtal vid Torymajoritet, folkomröstning vid Labourvinst men svårtolkat vid Toryminoritet. Opinionsmätningar visar på Tory-seger med de bör tas med en viss nypa salt.
11 december 2019: Storbritannien: Nyval lär ge Tory-seger men dödläge kan bestå

Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink

6 December 2019: Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink

Ökad nerv i lönerörelsen- men nog beskt for Riksbanken

Sprucken samordning ger besvärlig avtalsrörelse. Nya löneavtal lär hamna på eller strax över nuvarande nivå.
4 december 2019: Ökad nerv i lönerörelsen - men nog beskt för Riksbanken

China: New US legislation on Hong Kong is mostly symbolic but adds to issues in the trade talks

28 November 2019: China: New US legislation on Hong Kong is mostly symbolic but adds to issues in the trade talks

Macro-ESG: Falling short on sustainability

All Nordic countries are falling short of reaching the green and social targets by 2030. Governance continues to be a strength of the Nordics, but green and social investment is crucial for further growth.
21 November 2019: Macro-ESG: Falling short on sustainability

China: Still no trade deal as the talks drag on. Trade diversification and autarky used as a coping strategy

14 November 2019: China: Still no trade deal as the talks drag on

Klimatet och kapitalet: Kina, Indien och gröna exportmöjligheter

Kina och Indien står inför en omfattande klimatomställning, samtidigt som det behövs investeringar för att hantera en hållbar urbanisering. Omställningen skapar exportmöjligheter för svenska företag och det är viktigt att politiken stödjer denna utveckling.

7 november 2019: Kina, Indien och gröna exportmöjligheter

China: Falling PPI is a worrying sign of industrial weakness, while the CPI surge could start to weigh on households

4 November 2019: China: Falling PPI is a worrying sign of industrial weakness

Christine Lagarde - what can and what will she do?

In the short term business as usual with negative rates and QE. In the longer run a review of the monetary policy framework called for. 

29 October 2019: Christine Lagarde - what can and what will she do?

Fed preview: Easing to continue in October

Market expectations, recent communication and slowing economy suggests another rate cut sooner rather than later. We change our call and now expect a rate cut in October – but uncertainty still reigns.

25 October 2019: Fed preview: Easing to continue in October

Fed update: A committee divided

As widely expected the federal funds rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points.
The median dot-plot indicates no further rate cuts, but participants are divided.

19 September 2019: Fed update: A committee divided

Fed preview: Another rate cut is coming

A rate cut is widely expected in September.
Recent development supports the idea of a 25 bps rate cut, not 50 bps.

16 September 2019: Fed preview: Another rate cut is coming

ECB update: Deeper into the wicked woods

Lower rates, open-ended asset purchases, adjusted forward guidance and TLTRO-III. This will have limited impact on economic growth and inflation.

12 September 2019: ECB update: Deeper into the wicked woods

Preview: Inflation to offer little drama in August

We expect a seasonally normal price decline, leaving the CPIF unchanged at 1.5% in August. This would be an outcome in line with the Riksbank’s latest forecast. Underlying inflation would rise by 0.1 p.p. to 1.8%, also in line with the Riksbank’s forecast.

9 September 2019: Preview: Inflation to offer little drama in August

ECB preview: Deeper into the wicked woods

Economic growth remains subdued, but not dire; inflation and its expectations remain muted. Market expectations leave little room for manoeuvre.

9 September 2019: Deeper into the wicked woods

Euro area: Quo Vadis R Star

Demographics and productivity are the main drivers of interest rates in the upcoming decades. Without an increase in potential GDP growth, interest rates will remain low and will have many unwelcome side-effects.

9 September 2019: Euro area: Quo Vadis R Star

Central Bank Overview

Read the Central Bank Overview, which displays our central bank forecasts as presented in our recent Swedbank Economic Outlook, published on 27 August, 2019. It also includes a calendar for scheduled monetary policy meetings until end-2020.

6 September 2019: Central Bank Overview

Brexit: Hela havet stormar

Avtalslös brexit fortfarande möjligt men risken för detta har minskat givet de senaste dagarnas utveckling

6 september 2019: Brexit: Hela havet stormar

Preview: Lower CPIF inflation in July

CPIF inflation is falling due to base effects. Underlying changes just as important as the main CPIF figure. Norwegian CPI, which was released Friday, brings upside risk to our estimate.

12 August 2019: Preview: Lower CPIF inflation in July

What happened while you were away?

We’ve put together the economic news for Sweden and elsewhere since July. Not that great news but enjoy!

8 August 2019: What happened?

Preview: CPIF & core CPIF will be a challenge for the Riksbank

CPIF falls but CPIF excluding energy rises. Few, but volatile, price groups lower inflation in June. Energy prices decreases inflation in June.

10 July 2019: Preview: CPIF & core CPIF will be a challenge for the Riksbank 

Torrt krut och slagläge för finanspolitiken

Utdraget lågt ränteläge och stora reformbehov sätter finanspolitiken i fokus. Våra beräkningar visar på ett reformutrymme på 250-500 mdkr fram till 2023. 

1 juli 2019: Torrt krut och slagläge för finanspolitiken

Svensk bostadsmarknad; Från stabilisering till ökande priser - politiken en joker i leken

Vi väntar oss en stabil bostadsmarknad med oförändrade till lätt uppåtgående priser. Utbudet är fortsatt högt i närtid men kommer att dämpas framöver. Bostadsinvesteringarna dämpas tydligt i år, men inbromsningen når nu botten.

19 juni 2019: Svensk bostadsmarknad; Från stabilisering till ökande priser - politiken en joker i leken

Preview: Inflation again below the Riksbank's forecast

CPIF falls but is still in line with the inflation target. Volatile airfares reduce the inflation rate in May. Low imported inflation despite the weak krona.

13 June 2019: Preview: Inflation again below the Riksbank's forecast

Brexit - ett sisyfosarbete

Majoriteten av de tio Tory-kandidaterna för partiledarposten förespråkar en hård Brexit. Vissa av kandidaterna är tydliga med att utträdet måste vara klart den 31 okt 2019. Detta är en optimistisk tidsplan inte minst då risken är att kommissionen inte har hunnit få en ny ordförande.

13 juni 2019: Brexit - ett sisyfosarbete

ECB preview: From Vilnius with…

Economic data became less disappointing, but external and internal risks are abundant. The terms of TLTRO-III are likely to be unveiled, but no major change in forward guidance.

4 June 2019: ECB Preview: From Vilnius with...

European Elections May 23-26, 2019

Voters in 28 EU countries will cast their ballots for 753 members of the European Parliament on May 23-26, the only directly elected EU institution. A powerful Eurosceptic and nationalist minority is expected to emerge from the vote, with the pro-European mainstream weakened and fragmented.

23 May 2019: European Elections May 23-26, 2019 

Preview: Inflation rose broadly in April - Easter is a wild card

Easter and higher oil price, among others, are helping the CPIF to rise above 2%. Danish and Norwegian CPI bring no news ahead of tomorrow’s Swedish CPI. Weak SEK will sooner or later put a mark on CPI, but timing and magnitude uncertain.

13 May 2019: Preview: Inflation rose broadly in April - Easter is a wild card

Macro Focus Nordic-Baltic Business Report

All Nordic and Baltic countries are enjoying a remarkably smooth and steady business cycle. The economies remain competitive, but a rise in global protectionism threatens the short-run outlook while structural challenges will hinder growth going forward, especially in the Baltic countries.

8 May 2019: Nordic-Baltic Business Report

Macro Focus ECB update: downside risks and dovishness reiterated

As expected, no changes in monetary policy of forward guidance. Slow growth momentum is expected to last longer, but most recent data gives some relief. Updated macroeconomic projections and more details on TLTRO-III in June.

10 April 2019: Macro Focus ECB update: downside risks and dovishness reiterated

Minor price movement and falling inflation rate in March

March was likely an uneventful month for inflation. Falling annual rates in both CPIF and CPIF excl. energ. Danish and Norwegian CPI give no clues for tomorrow’s Swedish CPI.

10 April 2019: Minor price movement and falling inflation rate in March

Globalt: Längre liv - lägre räntor

Under de kommande åren kommer demografin att fortsätta pressa ned räntorna globalt. Detta kan leda till svällande balansräkningar, finansiell instabilitet och utmana centralbanker.

9 april 2019: Globalt: Längre liv - lägre räntor

ECB preview: Uneventful meeting, but let's listen to the mood

Economic data continued to disappoint, but we think that the worst is behind us. No major change in monetary policy or forward guidance is expected.

8 April 2019: ECB preview: Uneventful meeting, but let's listen to the mood