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Arkiv Makrofokus

ECB preview: From Vilnius with…

Economic data became less disappointing, but external and internal risks are abundant. The terms of TLTRO-III are likely to be unveiled, but no major change in forward guidance.

4 June 2019: ECB Preview: From Vilnius with...

European Elections May 23-26, 2019

Voters in 28 EU countries will cast their ballots for 753 members of the European Parliament on May 23-26, the only directly elected EU institution. A powerful Eurosceptic and nationalist minority is expected to emerge from the vote, with the pro-European mainstream weakened and fragmented.

23 May 2019: European Elections May 23-26, 2019 

Preview: Inflation rose broadly in April - Easter is a wild card

Easter and higher oil price, among others, are helping the CPIF to rise above 2%. Danish and Norwegian CPI bring no news ahead of tomorrow’s Swedish CPI. Weak SEK will sooner or later put a mark on CPI, but timing and magnitude uncertain.

13 May 2019: Preview: Inflation rose broadly in April - Easter is a wild card

Macro Focus Nordic-Baltic Business Report

All Nordic and Baltic countries are enjoying a remarkably smooth and steady business cycle. The economies remain competitive, but a rise in global protectionism threatens the short-run outlook while structural challenges will hinder growth going forward, especially in the Baltic countries.

8 May 2019: Nordic-Baltic Business Report

Macro Focus ECB update: downside risks and dovishness reiterated

As expected, no changes in monetary policy of forward guidance. Slow growth momentum is expected to last longer, but most recent data gives some relief. Updated macroeconomic projections and more details on TLTRO-III in June.

10 April 2019: Macro Focus ECB update: downside risks and dovishness reiterated

Minor price movement and falling inflation rate in March

March was likely an uneventful month for inflation. Falling annual rates in both CPIF and CPIF excl. energ. Danish and Norwegian CPI give no clues for tomorrow’s Swedish CPI.

10 April 2019: Minor price movement and falling inflation rate in March

Globalt: Längre liv - lägre räntor

Under de kommande åren kommer demografin att fortsätta pressa ned räntorna globalt. Detta kan leda till svällande balansräkningar, finansiell instabilitet och utmana centralbanker.

9 April 2019: Globalt: Längre liv - lägre räntor

ECB preview: Uneventful meeting, but let's listen to the mood

Economic data continued to disappoint, but we think that the worst is behind us. No major change in monetary policy or forward guidance is expected.

8 April 2019: ECB preview: Uneventful meeting, but let's listen to the mood