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Analyser

Storbritannien: Nyval lär ge Tory-seger men dödläge kan bestå

Avtal vid Torymajoritet, folkomröstning vid Labourvinst men svårtolkat vid Toryminoritet. Opinionsmätningar visar på Tory-seger med de bör tas med en viss nypa salt.
11 december 2019: Storbritannien: Nyval lär ge Tory-seger men dödläge kan bestå

Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink

6 December 2019: Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink

Ökad nerv i lönerörelsen- men nog beskt for Riksbanken

Sprucken samordning ger besvärlig avtalsrörelse. Nya löneavtal lär hamna på eller strax över nuvarande nivå.
4 december 2019: Ökad nerv i lönerörelsen - men nog beskt för Riksbanken

China: New US legislation on Hong Kong is mostly symbolic but adds to issues in the trade talks

28 November 2019: China: New US legislation on Hong Kong is mostly symbolic but adds to issues in the trade talks

Macro-ESG: Falling short on sustainability

All Nordic countries are falling short of reaching the green and social targets by 2030. Governance continues to be a strength of the Nordics, but green and social investment is crucial for further growth.
21 November 2019: Macro-ESG: Falling short on sustainability

China: Still no trade deal as the talks drag on. Trade diversification and autarky used as a coping strategy

14 November 2019: China: Still no trade deal as the talks drag on

Klimatet och kapitalet: Kina, Indien och gröna exportmöjligheter

Kina och Indien står inför en omfattande klimatomställning, samtidigt som det behövs investeringar för att hantera en hållbar urbanisering. Omställningen skapar exportmöjligheter för svenska företag och det är viktigt att politiken stödjer denna utveckling.

7 november 2019: Kina, Indien och gröna exportmöjligheter

China: Falling PPI is a worrying sign of industrial weakness, while the CPI surge could start to weigh on households

4 November 2019: China: Falling PPI is a worrying sign of industrial weakness

Christine Lagarde - what can and what will she do?

In the short term business as usual with negative rates and QE. In the longer run a review of the monetary policy framework called for. 

29 October 2019: Christine Lagarde - what can and what will she do?

Fed preview: Easing to continue in October

Market expectations, recent communication and slowing economy suggests another rate cut sooner rather than later. We change our call and now expect a rate cut in October – but uncertainty still reigns.

25 October 2019: Fed preview: Easing to continue in October

Fed update: A committee divided

As widely expected the federal funds rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points.
The median dot-plot indicates no further rate cuts, but participants are divided.

19 September 2019: Fed update: A committee divided

Fed preview: Another rate cut is coming

A rate cut is widely expected in September.
Recent development supports the idea of a 25 bps rate cut, not 50 bps.

16 September 2019: Fed preview: Another rate cut is coming

ECB update: Deeper into the wicked woods

Lower rates, open-ended asset purchases, adjusted forward guidance and TLTRO-III. This will have limited impact on economic growth and inflation.

12 September 2019: ECB update: Deeper into the wicked woods

Preview: Inflation to offer little drama in August

We expect a seasonally normal price decline, leaving the CPIF unchanged at 1.5% in August. This would be an outcome in line with the Riksbank’s latest forecast. Underlying inflation would rise by 0.1 p.p. to 1.8%, also in line with the Riksbank’s forecast.

9 September 2019: Preview: Inflation to offer little drama in August

ECB preview: Deeper into the wicked woods

Economic growth remains subdued, but not dire; inflation and its expectations remain muted. Market expectations leave little room for manoeuvre.

9 September 2019: Deeper into the wicked woods

Consumer Spending Observer

Consumer Spending Observer: Nothing new to report

Consumer spending stable at a few percent below last year’s level. Corona continues to boost spending on groceries, home electronics, and home furnishing.

23 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: A new normal?

Continued stable spending during last week at about 2% below last year’s level, and the growth rate in total spending seems to have reached a new, but temporary, normal.

16 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is almost back in town

After a fairly stable summer, September has started off on a stronger footing. Spending patterns are starting to look more and more like 2019 for several sectors, albeit on a lower level.

9 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Growth is picking up

Payday bounceback and almost all sectors improved in level terms. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.

2 september 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Temporary decline, stable trend

Card transaction turnover improved during last week in level terms, but fell in annual terms due to a pay day effect. The overall trend in spending is stable at around 4% lower compared to last year.

26 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending slowly climbs up

Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is still on track of approaching last year’s level. Growth is driven by groceries spending and offset mainly by a decline in recreation & culture and airlines & travel agencies.

19 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is improving in the first week of August, while the trend remains stable

Swedish card transaction data indicates that spending is approaching last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels continue to improve, while spending on groceries is much higher compared to last year.

12 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending during the last week, July, and the summer: all stable at about 5% below last year’s level

Some sectors are closing up the gap to 2019 spending. Travel related spending persists at extremely low levels, while spending on restaurants & hotels is approaching normal levels

5 augusti 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is somewhat below last year’s level, but the differences across sectors decrease

Swedish card transaction data up until 25th of July shows spending at about 5% below last year’s level. Restaurants & hotels show a significant improvement, while spending on groceries is less elevated compared to a month ago.

29 juli 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Spending is back to last year’s level

Swedish card transaction data up until 20th of June shows that spending recovered further, and total turnover is now back to last year’s level, with a different composition, however. Total spending excluding grocery stores is also improving and is now down by 8% compared to a year ago.

24 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)

Consumer Spending Observer: Swedish card transaction spending below normal levels, but improvement underway

Swedish card transaction data up until 13th of June continues to show lower spending compared to a year ago. Underlying trend in spending seems to be picking up slightly.

17 juni 2020: Consumer Spending Observer (pdf)